Forex Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – March 30, 2016


The EUR/USD is flat against the dollar today, with no data out of Europe and the US waiting on a speech from Federal Reserve Director Janet Yellen at the Economics Club later in the session. The euro is trading at 1.1197.Improved sentiment amongst U.S. households accompanied by a pickup in inflation expectations may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months as the central bank appears to be well on its way to fulfil its dual mandate for ‘full-employment’ and price stability.Signs of a stronger-than-expected recovery paired with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may push Fed Chair Janet Yellen. to adopt a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy, and a positive development may largely fuel interest-rate expectations as the central bank appears to be on course to remove the emergency measures throughout the year.San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Tuesday there is some upside risk that inflation could hit the Fed’s target sooner, but more data is needed to make a convincing assessment.Earlier this month, the Fed indicated it would likely only raise the benchmark rate just twice this year, down from earlier projections of four increases. The dollar came under selling pressure as lower rates make the dollar less attractive to yield-hungry investors. But the U.S. currency bounced back as a string of comments from Fed officials has helped reignite hopes that a rate increase could come as early as in April or June.FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.Today’s economic releases:

  JPYHousehold Spending (MoM) (Feb)0.5%-0.6%
  JPYHousehold Spending (YoY) (Feb)-1.5%-3.1%
  JPYJobs/applications ratio (Feb)1.291.28
  JPYRetail Sales (YoY) (Feb)1.7%-0.1%
  CADRMPI (MoM) (Feb)-0.8%-0.4%
  USDS&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY)5.9%5.7%
  USDCB Consumer Confidence (Mar)94.092.2

 eurusdUpcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:Wednesday, March 30, 2016

  USDAPI Weekly Crude Oil Stock8.796M
  NZDBuilding Consents (MoM) (Feb)5.0%-8.2%
  JPYIndustrial Production (MoM) (Feb)-5.8%3.7%
  EURGerman CPI (MoM) (Mar)0.6%0.4%
  USDADP Nonfarm Employment Change194K214K
  USDCrude Oil Inventories9.357M

Government Bond AuctionsDate Time and CountryMar 29 19:00 US Holds 5-year notes auctionMar 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auctionMar 30 11:10 Italy Holds bond auctionMar 30 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 BoblMar 30 19:00 US Holds 7-year notes auctionMar 31 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Apr 07Apr 01 N/A Italy Details of new BTP€i on Apr 04

Courtesy: FX Empire

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