News Trading Strategies: We will discuss one of the most interesting trading strategies that forex traders commonly employ is trading on economic news releases. Specifically, closely watched economic news items such as the United States’ Non-Farm Payrolls and, Gross Domestic Product numbers tend to result in significant reactions in the forex market, especially if they differ substantially from the market’s prior expectations. Learn more about how the GDP and the Non-Farm Payrolls data influences the forex market.
News Trading Strategies
Usually News and economic data are the main things of market developments, but in a little different way than many traders think. While many novice traders expect important economic events and news releases to be reflected on the price immediately, complain about the irrationality of the market when that doesn’t occur and protest that trading the news is not possible, in fact it is possible, and extremely lucrative in the long term, if one is willing to wait for the payback to arrive. In this article we will take a look at various data types, and attempt to classify them according to a few basic criteria. We will also try to explain how news releases determine market prices in the long term, especially those of greater value and impact on the market. Finally, we will say a couple of words on short term news trading, and the different data releases that are important.
How News Trading Strategies Works?
Most major news releases occur between 8:30 am and 10 am New York time in the US, and consequently trading is also most active and volatile in this period. Option expires, and market openings take place during this period also, when traders are busy at their desks absorbing and evaluating overnight data, attempting to place all the developments in a general context for usage later in the day. Since volatility is so high in this period, the profit/loss potential is also the highest. It is obvious that proper risk controls and money management techniques will play a major role in our trading method, if we want to avoid being caught in false breakouts and whipsaws.
You cannot predict the markets’ reaction to any type of data. This is not only the case when the news release is in line with analyst expectations, as published by news channels and financial news providers, but also when the release surprised significantly. Sometimes it’s not even possible to predict how volatile the markets reaction will be to the news release. Sometimes the market will move within a range of fifty or more pips in response to data released. Sometimes a 100-pip movements in the span of one or two minutes will be reversed and completely negated by the price action during the rest of the day. Conversely, while news releases are usually the most volatile periods of a typical trading day, a very unusual release may be welcomed with relative calm if the market decides to do so. What is the cause of all this great unpredictability?
When a news release a number of speculators will react immediately, hoping to gain a quick profit and exit. These will create a very brief ballooning of spreads and volume in the immediate term, but also will distort the underlying technical picture greatly. As these initial buyers or sellers exit, momentum traders will attempt to join in and fuel a more sustainable short-term trend with their actions. Depending on the time and liquidity in the market, they may well be successful, but sometimes they too are checked by previously unknown order layers that check the advance of the price. When these absorb the momentum traders, and short term speculative entrants, the initial reaction of the price may be reversed or negated also.
Main News Trading Strategies
Generally There are 2 ways of trading the news.
2. Long term Trading Strategies
Various academic studies have established that the impact of some news announcements have their immediate impact spread over a period of weeks and months, instead of the single day in which the markets are thought to discount them. Non-farm payrolls, and to a greater extent, the interest rate decisions of the federal reserve are good examples for this kind of news flow. While the markets react violently and unpredictably in the short term, the mechanisms set up by low interest rates, and full employment (or conversely, high unemployment) have consequences that are relevant to many sectors of the economy, and trading them on a long term basis is certainly possible. The trader who uses this strategy will build up his positions slowly, and will attach greater value to low frequency releases (such as GDP reports), and will wait until the overall picture offers clarity, before he makes his trade decisions.
3. Short term Trading Strategies
When trading news on a short term basis, the trader must have a clear criterion on what kind of news will justify a trade. Many news traders seek at least a 50 percent surprise in the data to consider the release tradeable. The novice trader, in turn, can use the initial period of his trading career for perfecting his money management skills. Trading the news on a short term basis can be easy and lucrative if the trader is disciplined enough to cut losses, and accumulate profits, but panic and mood swings, and undisciplined methodology will quickly erase all the gains through shocks and volatility.
Short term News Trading Strategies indicators
Here are the indicators which have the potential to cause the greatest short term movements in the markets.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
One of the important thing is the severity of market reaction to CPI releases partly depends on the health of the general economy. In a booming economy, a string of uncomfortably high CPI values will force the central bank to raise rates in order to subdue growth. In a contracting economy, a high CPI value may prevent the central bank from realizing counter-cyclical interest rate reductions. Since central bank rates are so important for determining the tone of economic activity in the long term, markets pay great attention to the value of this indicator. On the short term, of course, these considerations have no relationship to the motives of speculators, but they do present the justification for violent short term price spikes for momentum traders and short-term speculators, if the data surprises in either direction.
If the rate change is different from what was expected by market consensus Fed rate decisions can cause large movements. In the absence of such a surprise, traders will concentrate on the tone of the statement accompanying the interest rate decision. Depending on how dovish or hawkish the statement is, the markets will readjust their future interest rate expectations, and on that basis they will reprice currency pairs. The repricing period can be quite long, and it’s unwise to expect this process to be completed in the course of a few weeks.
The central banks of Europe and the US Federal Reserve usually release their rate decisions during the first week of each month. As most of the important data are released during this first week from around the world, traders are exceptionally nervous and excited, amplifying volume greatly, but also increasing volatility, as the large amount of short term speculative money opens and closes very short-term positions. In fact, some traders turn the typical movements of this period into a trading strategy.
Other key news item that can prompt significant Forex market volatility is central bank intervention that is usually announced over major news wires. In this case, a country’s central bank will sometimes need to adjust their currency and will enter the forex market to either support or bring down the value of its currency.
Most experienced traders will avoid trading the immediate aftermath of this release, due to the somewhat nutty price action that follows it. If you’ll forgive the expression. On the other hand, if the trader is satisfied that the data release strongly suggests price movement in a direction, he will use the short term fluctuations that occur as a trading opportunity by entering orders that contradict the market’s short term direction.
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
We know that the PMI provides a very quick and accurate snapshot of the status of the various sectors of the economy. They do not create as much volatility as the other major releases (such as the non-farm payrolls data, or Fed decisions), but as a result they are also more tradable and safer as entry points. Needless to say, a very extreme value can create massive price shocks in either direction, but the real use of this data is for the guidance it provides for predicting the much more important data that is released towards the end of the week. We can trade these releases both on a trend following, or contrarian basis, depending on what our analysis is telling us about market positioning and the fundamental picture.
Other Major Economic Data Releases Most Often Traded Upon
- Gross Domestic Product or GDP
- Employment Numbers
- Trade Balance
- Some words on insider information and availability of information
The Bottom Line : News Trading Strategies
The key point is protecting ourselves from emotional extremes, and making sure that we only open positions when we are really satisfied with the data release, and are confident that the scenario offers a reasonable profit potential. There are many more releases, and the trader can study each of them for creating his own strategy.
Please note that: because of the differences in trading conditions, all the forex strategies can not be applied to all broker platforms. So, Choosing Forex broker is a vital task. We would like to recommend you HYCM Broker. This broker has all the positive trading conditions necessary for any forex strategy to work. Read HYCM Broker Review to learn more.
Forex Trading Strategies
|Lesson 1||profitable Forex trading strategies|
|Lesson 2||Most popular trading strategies|
|Lesson 3||Forex Scalping Strategy|
|Lesson 4||Forex Trading Hedging Strategy|
|Lesson 5||Forex Trading Trendline Analysis|
|Lesson 6||Forex Trading Breakout Strategy|
|Lesson 7||Pivot Point Reversal Strategy|
|Lesson 8||Pivot Point Break Out Strategy|
|Lesson 9||News Trading Strategies|
|Lesson 10||Marker Sentiment Analysis|
|Lesson 11||Pivot Points Trading Strategy|